This brings us to the wildcard: Buying used. I just don't buy new vehicles, at least not often. The initial depreciation on a new car is just so steep, and the quality of modern cars and trucks is just so good that most can last a decade or more without expensive repairs. So I prefer to buy a pre-owned vehicle that's at least three years old, which is usually the sweet spot for value.
Today though, the market for pre-owned vehicles is so tight and prices so high that I'm seriously reconsidering. This is because 2008 and 2009 were bad sales years for new cars, so there just aren't enough late model used vehicles to satisfy demand. The effect this has had on used car prices is huge. I paid $5,900 for my Grand Caravan in spring 2009. Some 20,000 miles and two-and-a-half years later, AAA paid me $6,100 in my settlement.
While on one hand that's pretty great -- essentially meaning I drove my van for free for a couple years -- I still have to buy a vehicle to replace it in this same market. A six-year-old Chrysler minivan with 80k miles could easily run me over $10,000 today. With auto manufacturers are still putting big incentives on the hood of many new models, and some even offering zero-percent financing, this is certainly a good time to buy new. I still have quite a bit of shopping to do before I make my decision, but I'm going to have to find a screaming deal on a used minivan to keep me out of a new one.