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Rising traffic demands require a new vision for the mile markers ahead

by Bengt Halvorson

If you depend on Interstate highways for your daily commute, you might find it a little hard to be optimistic about the future of the Interstate system. Congestion is becoming the all-day norm, and complete gridlock is now commonplace on urban Interstates. Commuting distances and times are still growing each year, with the average commuter now spending about 90 minutes per day in the car, just getting to and from work.

Most will agree, the situation isn't getting any better.

In order to look at the immediate future of the Interstates, we need only look at some recent trends. Traffic volume increased by about 12 percent from 1990 to 2000 while lane miles increased by only six percent. Traffic density -- in terms of daily vehicle lane-miles traveled -- increased 31.7 percent from 1990 to 2000, so it's not surprising that the same period has seen travel times increase by about 12 percent. Traffic density continues to increase by about three percent each year.

Simply put, the Interstates are rapidly becoming woefully inadequate for handling future traffic demands. And as transportation planners and government officials try to come up with solutions, today's highway funding is barely enough for maintaining the present network. Annual spending on maintenance for the system has hovered around $14 billion per year -- less than is required to maintaining current conditions. According to a 2002 federal report, the cost to maintain current conditions is $16.4 billion per year, in 2000 dollars, while it would cost $17.3 billion per year to maintain current travel times.

And future funding is a worry. The most significant hurdle for the Interstates in the future, according to Mantill Williams, Washington, D.C. spokesman for the American Automobile Association, is funding to keep the system maintained and updated. "Considering the impending surge in alternative-fuel vehicles powered by hydrogen or ethanol, the funding from the federal gas tax is looking less assured, so we'll have to devise a new fair and equitable revenue stream for the highways."

While Interstate highways are generally in better condition than other types of roads -- and safer -- they're also more congested and thus have higher maintenance demands. In the 1980s and '90s road crews were reeling over replacement of many of the original stretches of Interstate, and pavement quality has improved, according to the Federal Highway Administration. Interstate highways are still significantly safer than other roads, but congestion is a serious issue and threatens safety and raises maintenance demands.

Serious infrastructure issues will likely have some states in a financial bind in coming years. The Interstate System includes thousands of aging bridges and tunnels. The typical design life of such a bridge is 50 years -- the bulk of the Interstate bridges in service today were built in the 1960s and '70s - but half of all Interstate bridges were at least 33 years old as of the 2002 report, and many were being pressed well past their intended service life.

A steady increase in truck traffic is the biggest threat to the future of the Interstates, while at the same time the Interstates have over the past few decades become vital for trade in the country due to the rise in the trucking industry. At the time of the Interstates' conception, trucking wasn't a serious consideration, but the Interstate system birthed the American trucking industry as we know it. Typically weighing about 80,000 pounds each, tractor-trailers subject the roads to far more wear and tear than they were intended to handle.

Big-rig traffic is still growing at a steep rate: Just in the past ten years, truck traffic on the Interstates has increased by 42 percent, and 93 percent of U.S. freight is now handled by our highways - mainly the Interstates. In the 1990s, overall freight movement by truck increased by 40 percent. Furthermore, Federal Highway Administration estimates predict that passenger traffic will have increased by another 17 percent from 2001 to 2010, with truck traffic increasing 28 percent for the same period, while trucking industry figures estimate that there are more than one million more trucks on our nation's highways today than just ten years ago. And that figure may not adequately account for the expected doubling in Latin American truck traffic.

One thing is for sure: The future of the Interstates will be much more focused around the needs of the trucking industry, commerce, and free trade between the U.S. and its neighbors. Just look at companies that built their fortune on the Interstates, like UPS and Wal-Mart.

"Almost everything we use -- our food, our clothes, even what we bid for on eBay -- travels the Interstate en route to our homes," said John Horsley, Executive Director of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, which represents state transportation departments.

"We're somewhat a victim of our own success," said Williams, explaining that population in suburban and urban areas has shifted to favor the convenience of the Interstates, while the trucking industry came to be such a dominant transport mode in this country due to the system.

Because the role of the Interstate System has changed over the years, to become our country's primary freight and commerce network, future expansions will probably favor trucking and trade with our neighbors to the South. One example is the I-69 expansion project. Though not yet completely approved, the highway would stretch an important freight route, from southern Texas and the Mexico border up through the existing route in Indiana and Michigan . Another is the hotly contested I-3 that would cut across northern Georgia and eastern Tennessee in a mostly undeveloped area of the southern Appalachian region, from Savannah to Knoxville .

Military and emergency concerns may also play a continued role in where the Interstates are expanded or improved. The Interstates have proven themselves already as important in times of crisis - most notably in recent years during the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center , when the Interstates were the only way to get the huge and necessary Caterpillar people movers from Illinois to Manhattan and up and running in less than 24 hours.

Interestingly, many of the futuristic visions of fifty years ago -- like flying cars and personal jet packs -- still haven't arrived, and they still seem just as far off. Although driver's aids like 'smart' radar cruise control and lane-departure warning systems will make driving long distances in dense traffic a little easier, automated highways are still a pipe dream, And even though our new cars are a lot more stable and safe at 100 miles per hour, congestion issues make legal speeds that fast seem even farther off. Perhaps the biggest advances of the past fifty years have been in safety; thanks to safety features like airbags and energy-absorbent body structures, Interstate fatality rates have been kept under control despite ever-increasing congestion.

It's clear that, from a policy perspective, there's no single solution. Blindly widening and expanding our highways won't necessarily provide a lasting fix, as sprawl will follow the development and the highway will soon again reach the same level of congestion. But maintaining intentional 'pinch points' in urban areas isn't a solution either.

"You have to look at feeder roads and possible mass-transit options. There is no one-size-fits-all," said Williams, who added, "You have to make sure that the people are going to use the system rather than work around it. The automobile is the dominant form of transport; nine out of ten trips are taken by car. And as our population grows, more people means more cars."

The future for our Interstate system is not entirely bright, but it's not too late to do something about it. It looks like these superhighways will be serving their function for many more decades, so rather than just keeping things at a crawl, let's come up with some solutions and kick it into overdrive.